Euro 1.3630

Initial support at 1.3552 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1.3436 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3736 (Mar 3 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen 90.40

Initial support is located at 87.74 (Dec 10 low) followed by 87.37 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.96 (0.5 of 93.77-88.14) followed by 91.90 (Feb 22 high).

Pound 1.5130

Initial support at 1.4959 (Mar 3 low) followed by 1.4855 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5136 (Mar 4 high) followed by 1.5209 (Mar 1 low).

Australian Dollar 0.9070

Initial support at 0.8979 (Mar 4 low) followed by the 0.8936 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9086 (Mar 3 high) followed by 0.9147 (Jan 21 high).

Gold 1135

Initial support at 1125 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1111 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1144 (Mar 3 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).

Oil 81.80

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Euro 1.3555

Initial support at 1.3451 (Feb 25 low) followed by 1.3424 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3692 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen 89.05

Initial support is located at 88.75 (Feb 26 low) followed by 88.56 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.36 (Feb 24 high) followed by 91.29 (Feb 23 high).

Pound 1.4980

Initial support at 1.4704 (Apr 30 low) followed by 1.4610 (April 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5209 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.5317 (Feb 26 low).

Australian Dollar 0.8995

Initial support at 0.8863 (Feb 26 low) followed by the 0.8801 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9071 (Feb 23 high) followed by 0.9093 (Jan 25 high).

Gold 1117

Initial support at 1104 (Feb 26 low) followed by 1088 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1131 (Feb 22 high) followed by 1141 (Jan 20 high).

Oil 78.70

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Euro 1.3560

Initial support at 1.3497 (Feb 23 low) followed by 1.3444 (Feb 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3692 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen 89.40

Initial support is located at 88.80 (Feb 25 low) followed by 88.56 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.36 (Feb 24 high) followed by 91.29 (Feb 23 high).

Pound 1.5255

Initial support at 1.5189 (Feb 25 low) followed by 1.5117 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5477 (Feb 24 high) followed by 1.5575 (Feb 23 low).

Australian Dollar 0.8875

Initial support at 0.8801 (Feb 25 low) followed by the 0.8786 (Feb 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8956 (Feb 24 high) followed by 0.9071 (Feb 23 high).

Gold 1105

Initial support at 1078 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1071 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1109 (Feb 25 high) followed by 1131 (Feb 22 high).

Oil 78.20

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.00 (Intraday Resistance).

There will be several important announcements at the ECB's meeting Thursday. While the main refinancing rate will be kept at 1%, the central bank will announce adjustments in the refinancing operations. The ECB staff will also publish economic forecasts which should have been upgraded.

The ECB has announced three 12-month refinancing operations (in June, September and December 2009) so far and it's likely that President Trichet will state at the meeting that the December tender will be last one. The confirmation is crucial as it signals the central bank is gradually exiting from its stimulus measure (though policymakers must emphasize it does not imply tightening). In fact, demand for such loans has declined as economy recovers albeit slowly. Banks drew 75 billion euro in September's 12-month tender, compared with 442 billion euro in the first tender in June.

Another issue is the conditions of this 12-month tender - whether a spread will be added to it. For those in June and September, they were priced at 1% refinancing rate. We anticipate no spread will be added this time, too. However, President Trichet said at the last press conference that the spread and 'indexed rate' would be determined in December. More details about indexation should be given at the upcoming meeting.

Other non-standard measures such as 3- and 6-month operations, as well as covered bond purchases, will also be done at reduced frequencies.

At the previous report, the ECB staff projected GDP to grow +0.2% on average next year. However, strong 3Q09 GDP growth (+0.4% qoq) should trigger upward revisions.  Moreover, the staff will, for the first time, publish forecasts for 2010. Modest upgrades will also be seen on inflation due to increase in the VAT in Spain and rise in general administrative prices.

We do not think we will get any hints regarding the timing of the first rate hike as the central bank will likely reiterate that current interest rates are "appropriate", indicating no imminence for increasing rates in the near future.